Safari Industries India Ltd. (Safari), incorporated in 1980,is in the business of manufacturing and trading of luggage and luggage accessories. Mr. Sumatichandra H Mehta, the founder, initially manufactured injection moulded plastic articles and vacuum formed plastic articles at the company’s plants inMumbai (then Bombay) and Halol, Gujarat.
In 2012, the company was taken over by Mr Sudhir Jatia, who was previously MD of VIP industries. Since then,the company has undergone restructuring with a number of new product launches.This has resulted in the company recording revenue growth of 6x over the last 7 years. It has also introduced many new categories such as back packs, school bags (via acquisition of Genius and Genie brands) and has improved its distribution network. The company has also adopted product rationalization and strategy realignment where non-performing SKUs (stock keeping units) have been eliminated. Currently, its products are available in 25+ major cities via 3,500+ outlets.
Promoter:
Sudhir M. Jatia is a commerce graduate from University of Mumbai.
He acquired Safari Industries (India) Limited in the year 2011 and was appointed
as its Managing Director from 18th April 2012.Mr. Jatia has a 22-year-old association
and experience with the Luggage Industry in India.
Timeline:
Financials:
Revenue over the decade has grown by 21.13% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) to
Rs 415.36 crores. During the same period, PAT (profit after tax) grew by 115.11%
to Rs 21.21 crores. The company has also recorded robust ROE (return on equity)
and ROCE (return on capital employed) over the last 5 years.
Increasing travel and premiumization will boost margins:
With most youngsters keen for travel and adventure, there is a robust demand for
hands-free and hassle-free luggage.New product introductions supported by effective
marketing spends to drive awareness among consumers and robust distribution has
led to positive growth. The company continues to develop its multi-brand strategy
during the year with Genius & Magnum brands to operate at wider price points
and broader consumer demographics in each category. To accelerate growth of acquired
brands ‘Genius & Genie’, the company is focusing on campus gear
targeted towards the ‘Teenagers & Young Adults’ segment. The brands
have been re-launched with the strategic intent of addressing all key segments of
the fastest growing short haul segment (travel over short distances).
The company continues its thrust on polycarbonate and backpack product categories. It introduced exciting prints and design options in the polycarbonate range of products. With consumers becoming more discerning, personalization and design values through prints are becoming increasingly important. Further, it launched a new and extensive range of backpacks with a significant upgradation both in terms of design and price. The range has been well received in the markets across the channels and consumers.
The company has improved its presence in hypermarkets and has grown significantly in e-commerce channels. The company also operates from more than 50 exclusive retail stores.
The company is increasing its SKUs in the premium segment with products in the price range of Rs. 8,000-10,000. The market is currently dominated by Samsonite, which controls 90% of the organised premium segment. A rise in Safari’s premium product sales would result in the gross margin of the company converging towards VIP’s gross margin (an upward of 50% from the current 46%).
The company plans to open a number of stores to increase its presence and brand recognition, but this will not increase its rent cost as a percentage of sales. The company will also not spend on advertisement & sales promotion expenses which will not dilute EBITDA margin.
Replicating VIP turnaround on Safari:
Before taking over Safari, Sudhir Jatia, the industry veteran with more than 2 decades
of industry experience, was MD of VIP from February 2007 to April 2010. During the
span of 3 years in VIP,he improved the company’s product portfolio by launching
new products. He invested in brand building and signed Bollywood stars Shahid Kapoor
and BipashaBasu, which eventually led to increased market share and improvement
in gross margins.
Before Mr. Jatia took over as MD of Safari, the company was struggling from limited number of SKUs and it primarily catered to the needs of adult customers and family travel due to which revenues werenearly stagnant (growing at only 6.2% CAGR during the period FY05-11).After Mr. Jatia took over the company, he discontinued all non-performing SKUs; as a result, gross margins increased from 3% to 42% and cash conversion cycle improved by 31 days to 121 days.
The company then entered PC luggage manufacturing and launched laptop bags and acquired Genius and Magnum brands to enter the school bags segment. The market size of backpacks is huge and is mainly catered to by unorganized players.
GST- A Game changer:
The Indian luggage industry is valued at Rs. 9,000+crore and is largely dominated
by the unorganized sector. The top three branded players namely, VIP Industries,
Samsonite and Safari form only ~28% of this market. VIP Industries is the market
leader with over 50% market share whereas Samsonite has been losing market share
(currently at ~35%, having fallen from 50%+). Backed by re-infused energy from the
new management, Safari has been grabbing market share in the last few years and
it currently stands at 14-15%.
With a growing economy and higher consumer confidence, increasing travel and product premiumization, the luggage industry has posted a 13%+ CAGR over the past decade and is expected to maintain this momentum for the next few years. With GST implementation in 2017, the new cost dynamics have further led to industry shifting towards organized players.
High Entry Barrier:
The industry is working capital intensive as companies need more inventory to maintain
a higher number of SKUs; it is very important that different SKUs are made available
as forecasting demand for over 100 SKUs is difficult.
Soft luggage issourced from China (manufacturing hub globally) which is very challenging because of scale required to make it cost effective along with high quality. Safari has been able to do this due to good business relationships enjoyed by Mr. Jatia with Chinese vendors. Payment cycle is another important factor which has increased from 30 days to 57 daysafterMr. Jatia has taken over.
New launches will help to gain market share:
Safari is expected to report strong growth with increase in penetration of luggage
in India through market share gain from both organized and un-organized players.
The company has been aggressively launching new products in backpacks, school bags
categories and is also expected to launch premium range of soft luggage such as
Frame, Primus, Xeno etc.
The company has continued its thrust on polycarbonate and backpack product categories. It has introduced exclusive polycarbonate ranges for specific e-commerce platforms to drive strong share growth in the channel. Further, it has launched a fresh new range of backpacks with a significant upgradation in terms of features, design and price.
Higher usage of Polycarbonate to boost margins:
Polycarbonate isa lightweight material,which is used to manufacture hard luggage;
traditional hard luggage made of polypropylene continues to see a steep drop in
sales. This shift is due to change in consumer preferences towards the convenience
of light and wheeled travel products and away from heavier products without wheels.
The company is expected to increase its polycarbonate capacity at Halol by 25% which
is currently operating at 100% capacity. The company has also witnessed an increase
of 3% from hard luggage contribution which presently contributes 23% of total sales.
This also helps the company safeguard itself from a key risk of currency fluctuation
and overdependence of soft luggage procurement from China.
Debt reduction:
Safari is currently working to improve its cash conversion cycle, which would be
possible by an increase in volumes and better negotiation with Chinese vendors (will
increase the credit period). This would enable the company to generate higher
cash flows over the next few years, which will help the company to reduce debt and
eventually become debt-free in the next few years.
The luggage industry continues to post steady growth during the year. This growth is expected to continue due to rise in consumer demand fuelled by increase in air travel, continuous shift of consumer preference from unbranded to branded products, wedding season-based purchasing, consumers’ changing lifestyle and improvement in standard of living, increase in disposable incomes, rising urbanization and the government's focus on growth of tourism. Good growth was seen across channels and product categories. Hypermarkets and e-commerce channels continue to grow strongly mainly due to better and convenient shopping experience.
The Indian tourism and hospitality industry has emerged as one of the key drivers of growth in the Indian services sector. It has the potential to expand by 2.5 per cent on the back of higher budgetary allocation and low-cost healthcare facility, according to a joint study conducted by The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) and Yes Bank.Tourism in India has significant potential considering the rich cultural and historical heritage, variety in ecology, terrains and places of natural beauty spread across the country. The tourism industry is also looking forward to the expansion of E-visa scheme, which is expected to double the tourist inflow to India. Tourism is also a potentially large employment generator besides being a significant source of foreign exchange for the country. During January-April 2018,foreign exchange earnings from tourism increased 17.4 per cent year-on-year to US$ 10.62 billion
India is the most digitally-advanced traveller nation in terms of digital tools being used for planning, booking and experiencing a journey. India’s rising middle class and increasing disposable incomes have continued to support the growth of domestic and outbound tourism.
DESCRIPTION | Mar-14 | Mar-15 | Mar-16 | Mar-17 | Mar-18 | Mar-19 | Mar-20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Sales | 166.47 | 215.93 | 278.13 | 343.54 | 417.50 | 530.22 | 662.78 |
% Growth | 30.00% | 29.00% | 24.00% | 22.00% | 27.00% | 25.00% | |
COGS | 86.37 | 120.62 | 151.13 | 198.20 | 222.82 | 278.37 | 344.65 |
Gross Profit | 80.09 | 95.32 | 126.99 | 145.34 | 194.68 | 251.86 | 318.13 |
Gross Profit Margin (%) | 0.48 | 44.00% | 46.00% | 42.00% | 47.00% | 48.00% | 48.00% |
Power & Fuel Cost | 0.80 | 1.42 | 2.03 | 2.61 | 3.35 | 4.32 | 5.58 |
% Sales | 0.00 | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
Employee Cost | 17.54 | 22.71 | 29.15 | 40.09 | 52.96 | 68.93 | 82.85 |
% Sales | 0.11 | 11.00% | 10.00% | 12.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% |
Other Manufacturing Expenses | 11.21 | 14.53 | 19.93 | 19.40 | 28.22 | 37.12 | 46.39 |
% Sales | 0.07 | 7.00% | 7.00% | 6.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% |
General and Administration Expenses | 12.26 | 15.13 | 19.20 | 23.13 | 27.60 | 33.12 | 39.74 |
% Sales | 0.07 | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% |
Selling and Distribution Expenses | 23.30 | 23.35 | 28.89 | 30.97 | 34.10 | 37.85 | 43.15 |
% Sales | 0.14 | 11.00% | 10.00% | 9.00% | 8.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% |
Miscellaneous Expenses | 7.89 | 5.86 | 9.22 | 4.77 | 6.83 | 7.95 | 9.94 |
% Sales | 0.05 | 3.00% | 3.00% | 1.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% |
Total Expenditure | 159.38 | 203.62 | 259.55 | 319.16 | 375.87 | 467.66 | 572.30 |
EBITDA | 7.08 | 12.32 | 18.58 | 24.37 | 41.63 | 62.57 | 90.48 |
EBITDA Margin (%) | 0.04 | 6.00% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 10.00% | 12.00% | 14.00% |
Other Income | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 1.10 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
Interest | 5.57 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 3.90 | 3.18 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
Depreciation | 1.28 | 2.89 | 4.07 | 5.13 | 6.18 | 6.50 | 7.00 |
Profit Before Taxation & Exceptional Items | 0.82 | 6.76 | 12.01 | 16.44 | 33.82 | 54.07 | 82.98 |
Exceptional Income / Expenses | -0.28 | -0.96 | -0.06 | -0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PBT | 0.54 | 5.80 | 11.95 | 15.55 | 33.82 | 54.07 | 82.98 |
Tax | 0.42 | 1.54 | 4.20 | 5.36 | 12.29 | 19.46 | 29.87 |
Tax % | 0.78 | 27.00% | 35.00% | 35.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% | 36.00% |
Profit After Tax | 0.12 | 4.26 | 7.75 | 10.18 | 21.54 | 34.60 | 53.11 |
PAT Margin (%) | 0.00 | 2.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.00% | 7.00% | 8.00% |
EPS | 0.08 | 2.14 | 3.73 | 4.91 | 9.68 | 15.52 | 23.82 |
With premium product launches and improvement in working capital, the company is ready to benefit from shift in business from un-organized to organized players.We recommend ‘buy’ with a target price of Rs. 1,650 at a PE valuation of 69x its FY20E EPS. The stock currently trades at a PE of 34x FY20E and 53x FY19E EPS.