Particulars (Rs. in Crores) | Q1FY23 | Q1FY22 | YoY | Q4FY22 | QoQ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue from Operations | 32804.60 | 26853.60 | 22.20% | 31500.30 | 4.10% |
EBITDA | 16529.40 | 12980.30 | 27.30% | 16040.30 | 3.00% |
EBITDA Margin (%) | 50.39% | 48.34% | 50.92% | ||
Profit After Tax | 2468.80 | 941.40 | 162.20% | 3715.00 | -33.50% |
PAT Margin (%) | 7.53% | 3.51% | 11.79% | ||
Earnings Per Share (Rs.) | 2.88 | 0.51 | 464.70% | 3.59 | -19.80% |
Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research
Highlights for the Quarter Ended June 2022
Consolidated top line hit Rs 32,805 crores, up 4.1% QoQ and 22.2% YoY. India wireless
sales reached Rs. 18,220 crores, up 3.4% QoQ and 27.4% YoY, driven by residual pass
through of price hikes. This was greater than VIL's 1.7% QoQ topline growth
and in line with Rjio's 3.7% QoQ revenue growth.
The reported EBITDA was higher by 3% QoQ that resulted in a FCF generation and deleveraging. The lower Africa margins, which were at 48.8%, down 110 bps QoQ, were the primary cause of the overall margin decline of 53bps QoQ. India's wireless margin was 51.2% (up 55 bps QoQ). India's overall margin increased 13bps QoQ to 51%. Due to increased derivatives/forex fluctuation losses of ~Rs. 512 crores and lower associate profit of ~Rs. 163 crores, PAT was lower by ~33% QoQ to Rs. 2,469 crores.
At 1.3 million, subscriber growth lagged behind RJio's 10 million additions but was stronger than VIL's 3.4 million drop. In contrast to the previous quarter, when RJio and VIL both lost subscribers while Bharti was the only operator to gain. Bharti added a modest 4.5 million 4G users, totalling 205 million (2% QoQ increase), or 63% of all subscribers. 7 million and 0.9 million new 4G subscribers, respectively, were added by RJio and VIL.
Nearly 20 GHz of spectrum valued at Rs. 43,100 crores was purchased by Bhart Airtel in the recently ended 5G auction, and as a result, the company is prepared to build out 5G nationwide. By March 2024, the company plans to aggressively reach 5,000 towns and important rural areas. It plans to adopt the Non-Standalone (NSA) model of 5G roll-out with the ability to transition to Standalone (SA) as the ecosystem matures because it has a sizable mid-band capacity on hand. Although ARPU has not increased due to 5G globally, it should be noted that India may have the lowest ARPU globally. The company anticipates an increase in ARPUs to Rs. 200 and eventually to Rs. 300.
While total capex for the quarter was Rs. 6,400 crores, capex for India's mobile services was Rs. 3,700 crores. While there is currently no capex guidance, capex is likely to increase in the near future to support a high-intensity 5G rollout.
Key Conference Call Highlights
The industry structure favours the standing position of the Bharti Airtel and probable increase in tariffs in near term could push the ARPUs up, which as per the management could touch Rs. 200 followed by Rs. 300. Also, backing of Google as an investor could also act as a support for the business and its investors. We see Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio to be strong contenders and both are eligible to gain some market share from VIL. We see Bharti as a growth story for medium-to-long term, fuelled by an increase in ARPU and rapid growth in Home BB and Enterprise services.
The stock trades at 5.8x of FY24E EV/EBITDA.
Particulars (Rs. in Crores) | Q1FY23 | Q1FY22 | YoY | Q4FY22 | QoQ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue from Operations | 32804.60 | 26853.60 | 22.20% | 31500.30 | 4.10% |
Total Expenditure | 16275.20 | 13873.30 | 15460.00 | ||
EBITDA | 16529.40 | 12980.30 | 27.30% | 16040.30 | 3.00% |
EBITDA Margin (%) | 50.39% | 48.34% | 50.92% | ||
Depreciation & Amortisation Expenses | 8781.40 | 7713.70 | 8582.60 | ||
EBIT | 7748.00 | 5266.60 | 47.10% | 7457.70 | 3.90% |
EBIT Margin (%) | 23.62% | 19.61% | 23.68% | ||
Finance Costs | 4510.90 | 4225.70 | 4059.30 | ||
Other Income | 192.20 | 209.80 | 18.60 | ||
Share of Profit of Associates and JV (Net) | -162.80 | -494.70 | -713.60 | ||
Profit Before Exceptional Items and Tax | 3592.10 | 1745.40 | 4130.60 | ||
Exceptional Items | - | -30.50 | -906.20 | ||
Profit Before Tax | 3592.10 | 1775.90 | 102.30% | 5036.80 | -28.70% |
Tax Expense | 1123.30 | 834.50 | 1321.80 | ||
Effective Tax Rate (%) | 31.27% | 46.99% | 26.24% | ||
Profit After Tax | 2468.80 | 941.40 | 162.20% | 3715.00 | -33.50% |
PAT Margin (%) | 7.53% | 3.51% | 11.79% | ||
Earnings Per Share (Rs.) | 2.88 | 0.51 | 464.70% | 3.59 | -19.80% |
Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research
Year End March (Rs. in Crores) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Sales | 87938.00 | 100615.80 | 116546.90 | 133619.13 | 150946.80 |
Expenditure | |||||
Material Cost | 1295.80 | 1817.50 | 2559.70 | 2934.65 | 3315.22 |
Employee Cost | 3513.70 | 4114.60 | 4433.30 | 5082.71 | 5741.83 |
Other Expenses | 54203.50 | 58984.78 | 64832.81 | -8017.36 | -9057.05 |
EBITDA | 36222.20 | 45371.70 | 57533.90 | 68702.24 | 79120.99 |
EBITDA Margin | 41.19% | 45.09% | 49.37% | 51.42% | 52.42% |
Depreciation & Amortization | 27094.40 | 29404.40 | 33090.70 | 35972.89 | 38065.78 |
EBIT | 9127.80 | 15967.30 | 24443.20 | 32729.35 | 41900.51 |
EBIT Margin % | 10.38% | 15.87% | 20.97% | 24.49% | 27.76% |
Other Income | 1535.70 | 642.80 | 534.30 | 614.65 | 845.30 |
Interest & Finance Charges | 14073.20 | 15091.00 | 16616.20 | 15551.40 | 13249.74 |
Profit Before Tax - Before Exceptional | -3409.70 | 1519.10 | 8361.30 | 17792.60 | 28650.77 |
Profit Before Tax | -43498.90 | -14395.40 | 10059.90 | 17792.60 | 28650.77 |
Tax Expense | -12182.30 | 8932.50 | 4177.90 | 6049.48 | 9741.26 |
Effective Tax rate | 28.01% | -62.05% | 41.53% | 34.00% | 34.00% |
Exceptional Items | -40089.20 | -15914.50 | 1698.60 | - | - |
Consolidated Net Profit | -32183.20 | -26140.20 | 4254.90 | 11743.12 | 18909.51 |
Net Profit Margin after MI | -36.60% | -25.98% | 3.65% | 8.79% | 12.53% |
As of March (Rs. in Crores) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share Capital | 2727.80 | 2746.00 | 2795.00 | 2795.00 | 2795.00 |
Total Reserves | 74349.70 | 56119.00 | 63658.70 | 73442.36 | 90112.48 |
Shareholders' Funds | 102129.50 | 81226.60 | 91935.00 | 101718.66 | 118388.78 |
Non Current Liabilities | |||||
Long Term Borrowing | 91079.20 | 110560.30 | 113535.00 | 100620.20 | 85620.20 |
Current Liabilities | |||||
Short Term Borrowings | 16703.40 | 8082.30 | 17294.30 | 17294.30 | 17294.30 |
Trade Payables | 24366.80 | 27872.10 | 29274.10 | 34857.38 | 38781.34 |
Total Equity & Liabilities | 333763.00 | 325941.40 | 343731.00 | 344097.94 | 349692.02 |
Assets | |||||
Net Fixed Assets | 229255.50 | 223479.60 | 244083.30 | 233110.41 | 221294.62 |
Current Assets | |||||
Inventories | 156.90 | 266.00 | 375.00 | 205.62 | 272.87 |
Sundry Debtors | 4605.80 | 3637.70 | 4056.20 | 3769.63 | 4677.80 |
Cash and Bank | 15892.70 | 13466.10 | 13494.30 | 25290.09 | 41724.53 |
Total Assets | 333763.00 | 325941.40 | 343731.00 | 344097.94 | 349692.02 |
Year End March (Rs. in Crores) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profit After Tax | -31316.60 | -23327.90 | 5882.00 | 11743.12 | 18909.51 |
Depreciation | 27094.40 | 29404.40 | 33090.70 | 35972.89 | 38065.78 |
Changes in Working Capital | -16596.40 | 3043.20 | -1447.20 | 6039.24 | 2948.53 |
Cash From Operating Activities | 18128.70 | 48205.00 | 55016.60 | 53755.25 | 59923.82 |
Purchase of Fixed Assets | -20716.80 | -27257.60 | -27399.90 | -25000.00 | -26250.00 |
Free Cash Flows | -2588.10 | 20947.40 | 27616.70 | 28755.25 | 33673.82 |
Cash Flow from Investing Activities | -30491.90 | -26888.40 | -41869.60 | -25000.00 | -26250.00 |
Increase / (Decrease) in Loan Funds | -17955.30 | -11816.20 | -1877.80 | -15000.00 | -15000.00 |
Equity Dividend Paid | -1826.30 | -2690.60 | -1443.80 | -1959.46 | -2239.39 |
Cash from Financing Activities | 19144.40 | -24910.30 | -15203.20 | -16959.46 | -17239.39 |
Net Cash Inflow / Outflow | 6781.20 | -3593.70 | -2056.20 | 11795.79 | 16434.44 |
Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents | 5379.30 | 13053.90 | 9063.00 | 7398.70 | 19194.49 |
Closing Cash & Cash Equivalent | 13053.90 | 9063.00 | 7398.70 | 19194.49 | 35628.93 |
Year End March | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS | -57.83 | -46.63 | 7.60 | 20.98 | 33.78 |
DPS | 2.00 | - | 3.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Book value (Rs/share) | 183.51 | 144.89 | 164.21 | 181.69 | 211.47 |
ROCE (%) Post Tax | 3.76% | 13.14% | 6.91% | 9.95% | 12.54% |
ROE (%) | -31.51% | -32.18% | 4.63% | 11.54% | 15.97% |
PE | -7.48 | -18.84 | 99.18 | 33.61 | 20.87 |
P/BV | 2.36 | 3.50 | 4.60 | 3.88 | 3.33 |
EV/EBITDA | 9.08 | 8.75 | 9.41 | 7.18 | 5.84 |
P/Sales | 2.74 | 2.83 | 3.63 | 2.95 | 2.61 |
Net debt/Equity | 0.86 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 0.97 | 0.57 |
Net Debt/ EBITDA | 2.43 | 2.47 | 2.06 | 1.44 | 0.85 |
Sales/Net FA (x) | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.66 |