StockAxis

Bharti Airtel Ltd

Quarterly Result - Q1YFY23

Bharti Airtel Ltd

Telecommunication - Service Provider

Current

CMP
Rs. 709
Rating:
Hold
August 08, 2022

Previous

Rating:
Hold

Stock Info

BSE
532454
NSE
BHARTIARTL
Bloomberg
BHARTI:IN
Reuters
BRTI.NS
Sector
Telecommunication - Service Provider
Face Value (Rs)
5
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
2,795
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
422752.54
52w H/L (Rs)
781.80 - 584.30
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
4,710,921

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 30-Jun)
%
Promoter
55.93
FIIs
18.54
DIIs
20.22
Public & Others
5.31
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
1.31
-1.04
19.80
Sensex
8.02
8.05
8.18
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Bharti Airtel Ltd Sensex
Bharti Airtel Ltd
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Financial Highlights:

Particulars (Rs. in Crores) Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY Q4FY22 QoQ
Revenue from Operations 32804.60 26853.60 22.20% 31500.30 4.10%
EBITDA 16529.40 12980.30 27.30% 16040.30 3.00%
EBITDA Margin (%) 50.39% 48.34% 50.92%
Profit After Tax 2468.80 941.40 162.20% 3715.00 -33.50%
PAT Margin (%) 7.53% 3.51% 11.79%
Earnings Per Share (Rs.) 2.88 0.51 464.70% 3.59 -19.80%

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research

Highlights for the Quarter Ended June 2022
Consolidated top line hit Rs 32,805 crores, up 4.1% QoQ and 22.2% YoY. India wireless sales reached Rs. 18,220 crores, up 3.4% QoQ and 27.4% YoY, driven by residual pass through of price hikes. This was greater than VIL's 1.7% QoQ topline growth and in line with Rjio's 3.7% QoQ revenue growth.

The reported EBITDA was higher by 3% QoQ that resulted in a FCF generation and deleveraging. The lower Africa margins, which were at 48.8%, down 110 bps QoQ, were the primary cause of the overall margin decline of 53bps QoQ. India's wireless margin was 51.2% (up 55 bps QoQ). India's overall margin increased 13bps QoQ to 51%. Due to increased derivatives/forex fluctuation losses of ~Rs. 512 crores and lower associate profit of ~Rs. 163 crores, PAT was lower by ~33% QoQ to Rs. 2,469 crores.

At 1.3 million, subscriber growth lagged behind RJio's 10 million additions but was stronger than VIL's 3.4 million drop. In contrast to the previous quarter, when RJio and VIL both lost subscribers while Bharti was the only operator to gain. Bharti added a modest 4.5 million 4G users, totalling 205 million (2% QoQ increase), or 63% of all subscribers. 7 million and 0.9 million new 4G subscribers, respectively, were added by RJio and VIL.

Nearly 20 GHz of spectrum valued at Rs. 43,100 crores was purchased by Bhart Airtel in the recently ended 5G auction, and as a result, the company is prepared to build out 5G nationwide. By March 2024, the company plans to aggressively reach 5,000 towns and important rural areas. It plans to adopt the Non-Standalone (NSA) model of 5G roll-out with the ability to transition to Standalone (SA) as the ecosystem matures because it has a sizable mid-band capacity on hand. Although ARPU has not increased due to 5G globally, it should be noted that India may have the lowest ARPU globally. The company anticipates an increase in ARPUs to Rs. 200 and eventually to Rs. 300.

While total capex for the quarter was Rs. 6,400 crores, capex for India's mobile services was Rs. 3,700 crores. While there is currently no capex guidance, capex is likely to increase in the near future to support a high-intensity 5G rollout.

Key Conference Call Highlights

  • An 5G rollout on a non-standalone network encompassing 5000 towns by March 24 should be made possible by the high share of mid band spectrum. The three-year capex rate should remain constant, although increases could be seen in the following 1.5 years.
  • The company reiterates its estimate that from its current ARPU of Rs. 183, ARPU will increase to Rs. 200 and then Rs. 300.
  • The industry's 4G subscriber additions have declined recently due to the slower introduction of low-cost handsets. In the short run, this should change.
  • Two modes where 5G operates: Standalone and Non-Standalone. SA network: lack of a well-developed device ecosystem, resulting in less propagation. The sub-GHz layer is only for coverage, not capacity. NSA network: all devices operate in this mode. Telecom is concerned with its ecosystem. Better consumer experience through faster call connect time, download speeds, and so on. will provide coverage; 2) all devices will work in this ecosystem; 3) existing 4G spectrum will be used at no extra cost; and 4) faster uplink and call connect will improve user experience.
  • According to management, Sub-GHz in 5G provides just 8-10mbps, which is comparable to 4G. They claimed that with 5G, the NSA band provides faster speeds. As a result, there is no requirement for the 700MHz band in their spectrum portfolio. In terms of propagation, the 700MHz band is identical to the 850/900MHz range. The 700MHz spectrum provides far-reaching coverage and 4G-like speeds. Furthermore, the cost for 700MHz is higher.
  • The company does not expect to invest significantly in spectrum in the coming years. If the company must purchase 700MHz, management anticipates a high cost per GB in SA vs. NSA.
  • The management expects 4G traffic to migrate to 5G, and that all 4G bands will migrate to 5G quickly. In a few years, 4G spending will be replaced by 5G spending.

Outlook & valuation

The industry structure favours the standing position of the Bharti Airtel and probable increase in tariffs in near term could push the ARPUs up, which as per the management could touch Rs. 200 followed by Rs. 300. Also, backing of Google as an investor could also act as a support for the business and its investors. We see Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio to be strong contenders and both are eligible to gain some market share from VIL. We see Bharti as a growth story for medium-to-long term, fuelled by an increase in ARPU and rapid growth in Home BB and Enterprise services.

The stock trades at 5.8x of FY24E EV/EBITDA.

Quarterly Financials

Particulars (Rs. in Crores) Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY Q4FY22 QoQ
Revenue from Operations 32804.60 26853.60 22.20% 31500.30 4.10%
Total Expenditure 16275.20 13873.30 15460.00
EBITDA 16529.40 12980.30 27.30% 16040.30 3.00%
EBITDA Margin (%) 50.39% 48.34% 50.92%
Depreciation & Amortisation Expenses 8781.40 7713.70 8582.60
EBIT 7748.00 5266.60 47.10% 7457.70 3.90%
EBIT Margin (%) 23.62% 19.61% 23.68%
Finance Costs 4510.90 4225.70 4059.30
Other Income 192.20 209.80 18.60
Share of Profit of Associates and JV (Net) -162.80 -494.70 -713.60
Profit Before Exceptional Items and Tax 3592.10 1745.40 4130.60
Exceptional Items - -30.50 -906.20
Profit Before Tax 3592.10 1775.90 102.30% 5036.80 -28.70%
Tax Expense 1123.30 834.50 1321.80
Effective Tax Rate (%) 31.27% 46.99% 26.24%
Profit After Tax 2468.80 941.40 162.20% 3715.00 -33.50%
PAT Margin (%) 7.53% 3.51% 11.79%
Earnings Per Share (Rs.) 2.88 0.51 464.70% 3.59 -19.80%

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research

Consolidated Financial statements

Profit & Loss statement

Year End March (Rs. in Crores) 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
Net Sales 87938.00 100615.80 116546.90 133619.13 150946.80
Expenditure
Material Cost 1295.80 1817.50 2559.70 2934.65 3315.22
Employee Cost 3513.70 4114.60 4433.30 5082.71 5741.83
Other Expenses 54203.50 58984.78 64832.81 -8017.36 -9057.05
EBITDA 36222.20 45371.70 57533.90 68702.24 79120.99
EBITDA Margin 41.19% 45.09% 49.37% 51.42% 52.42%
Depreciation & Amortization 27094.40 29404.40 33090.70 35972.89 38065.78
EBIT 9127.80 15967.30 24443.20 32729.35 41900.51
EBIT Margin % 10.38% 15.87% 20.97% 24.49% 27.76%
Other Income 1535.70 642.80 534.30 614.65 845.30
Interest & Finance Charges 14073.20 15091.00 16616.20 15551.40 13249.74
Profit Before Tax - Before Exceptional -3409.70 1519.10 8361.30 17792.60 28650.77
Profit Before Tax -43498.90 -14395.40 10059.90 17792.60 28650.77
Tax Expense -12182.30 8932.50 4177.90 6049.48 9741.26
Effective Tax rate 28.01% -62.05% 41.53% 34.00% 34.00%
Exceptional Items -40089.20 -15914.50 1698.60 - -
Consolidated Net Profit -32183.20 -26140.20 4254.90 11743.12 18909.51
Net Profit Margin after MI -36.60% -25.98% 3.65% 8.79% 12.53%

Balance Sheet

As of March (Rs. in Crores) 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
Share Capital 2727.80 2746.00 2795.00 2795.00 2795.00
Total Reserves 74349.70 56119.00 63658.70 73442.36 90112.48
Shareholders' Funds 102129.50 81226.60 91935.00 101718.66 118388.78
Non Current Liabilities
Long Term Borrowing 91079.20 110560.30 113535.00 100620.20 85620.20
Current Liabilities
Short Term Borrowings 16703.40 8082.30 17294.30 17294.30 17294.30
Trade Payables 24366.80 27872.10 29274.10 34857.38 38781.34
Total Equity & Liabilities 333763.00 325941.40 343731.00 344097.94 349692.02
Assets
Net Fixed Assets 229255.50 223479.60 244083.30 233110.41 221294.62
Current Assets
Inventories 156.90 266.00 375.00 205.62 272.87
Sundry Debtors 4605.80 3637.70 4056.20 3769.63 4677.80
Cash and Bank 15892.70 13466.10 13494.30 25290.09 41724.53
Total Assets 333763.00 325941.40 343731.00 344097.94 349692.02

Cash Flow Statement

Year End March (Rs. in Crores) 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
Profit After Tax -31316.60 -23327.90 5882.00 11743.12 18909.51
Depreciation 27094.40 29404.40 33090.70 35972.89 38065.78
Changes in Working Capital -16596.40 3043.20 -1447.20 6039.24 2948.53
Cash From Operating Activities 18128.70 48205.00 55016.60 53755.25 59923.82
Purchase of Fixed Assets -20716.80 -27257.60 -27399.90 -25000.00 -26250.00
Free Cash Flows -2588.10 20947.40 27616.70 28755.25 33673.82
Cash Flow from Investing Activities -30491.90 -26888.40 -41869.60 -25000.00 -26250.00
Increase / (Decrease) in Loan Funds -17955.30 -11816.20 -1877.80 -15000.00 -15000.00
Equity Dividend Paid -1826.30 -2690.60 -1443.80 -1959.46 -2239.39
Cash from Financing Activities 19144.40 -24910.30 -15203.20 -16959.46 -17239.39
Net Cash Inflow / Outflow 6781.20 -3593.70 -2056.20 11795.79 16434.44
Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents 5379.30 13053.90 9063.00 7398.70 19194.49
Closing Cash & Cash Equivalent 13053.90 9063.00 7398.70 19194.49 35628.93

Key Ratios

Year End March 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
EPS -57.83 -46.63 7.60 20.98 33.78
DPS 2.00 - 3.00 3.50 4.00
Book value (Rs/share) 183.51 144.89 164.21 181.69 211.47
ROCE (%) Post Tax 3.76% 13.14% 6.91% 9.95% 12.54%
ROE (%) -31.51% -32.18% 4.63% 11.54% 15.97%
PE -7.48 -18.84 99.18 33.61 20.87
P/BV 2.36 3.50 4.60 3.88 3.33
EV/EBITDA 9.08 8.75 9.41 7.18 5.84
P/Sales 2.74 2.83 3.63 2.95 2.61
Net debt/Equity 0.86 1.38 1.29 0.97 0.57
Net Debt/ EBITDA 2.43 2.47 2.06 1.44 0.85
Sales/Net FA (x) 0.41 0.44 0.50 0.56 0.66