StockAxis

Blue Dart Express Ltd

Quarterly Result - Q1FY23

Blue Dart Express Ltd

Courier Services

Current

CMP
Rs. 87120
Rating:
Hold
July 27, 2022

Previous

Rating:
Hold

Stock Info

BSE
526612
NSE
BLUEDART
Bloomberg
BDE:IN
Reuters
BLDT.NS
Sector
Courier Services
Face Value (Rs)
10
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
23.76
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
20380.87
52w H/L (Rs)
8422.75 - 5306.50
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
33,494

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 30-Jun)
%
Promoter
75
FIIs
3.5
DIIs
9.59
Public & Others
11.91
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
13.65
25.01
47.94
Sensex
4.99
-1.77
6.16
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Blue Dart Express Ltd Sensex
Blue Dart Express Ltd
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Financial Highlights:

Particulars (Rs. in Crores) Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY Q4FY22 QoQ
Revenue from Operations 1293.31 866.22 49.30% 1165.91 10.93%
EBITDA 267.22 159.08 67.98% 291.80 -8.42%
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.66% 18.36% 25.03%
Profit After Tax 118.79 31.27 279.88% 136.97 -13.27%
PAT (%) 9.18% 3.61% 11.75%
Earnings Per Share (Rs.) 50.06 13.18 279.82% 57.73 -13.29%

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research

Highlights for the quarter ended June 2022
During the quarter ended June 2022, the company posted decent set of numbers. The topline increased ~11% QoQ to Rs. 1,293 crores. Shipments and tonnage increased 5 and 13%, respectively on QoQ basis and 50 and 51%, respectively on YoY basis due to the base effect. Further, due to higher freight cost and employee costs on a sequential basis, the EBITDA declined 8.4% QoQ to Rs. 267 crores and margin were hit by ~440 bps QoQ to 20.7%. The bottom line was lower by 13.3% QoQ to Rs. 119 crores vs. Rs. 137 crores in Q4FY22.

With improved cash flows as a result of better receivable management, the company remains debt-free. Furthermore, in order to capitalise on growth opportunities and demand for higher capacities, the company has begun plans to expand its network. To meet increased demand for air capacity, the company plans to add two Boeing 737-800 freighter planes this fiscal year. The company plans to add more freighters in the future by expanding its network into Tier II cities based on load factors. Similarly, the company is expanding its ground hub and network to accommodate expected volume growth.

Key Conference Call Highlights

  • Revenue
    • High single digits/Low double digits topline growth potential in air
    • Higher growth in terms of volumes is witnessed in ground, compared to Air. However, air has contributed more to the topline due to higher realization/ton vs. ground and e-commerce.
  • Volume, Pricing, and Realization
    • Blue Dart uses Fuel surcharge mechanism to pass prices on to the customers. (There is a 1-month lag in price pass on).
    • Volatile crude oil staying higher, may hurt margins and growth in topline.
    • 77.08 million shipments in Q1FY23 vs. 51.22 million in Q1FY22. A 15-20% increase in capacity in air express will not lead to a commensurate increase in air express volume since they are small tonnage planes. The company is expanding the capacity in the segment for better reach.
  • Capex and Capacity Addition
    • Blue Dart will add 2 more aircrafts of ~18 tons capacity per plane per night to its fleet by H2FY23, with an outlay of Rs. 360 crores.
    • This addition will lead to 15-20% increase in tonnage capacity of Blue Dart Aviation.
    • At 70-75% utilisation, new capacities should breakeven.
    • Additional capex will also be done in Ground parcel. But these will be on lease basis, thus following an asset light model
  • Margins
    • 100-150 (+/-) bps change can happen in the margins in next 1-2 years
    • Margins are best in the Q3 due to festive season.
    • GMs are impacted by volumes and fuel prices both. Prices cooling off in Q2 and Q3 along with healthy volume growth could lead to expansion in gross margins
  • Air express segment
    • Door to door delivery service. Not many players have entered this segment in last 2 years.
    • Currently Operating at 90% capacity utilization.
    • Market share in this segment was 54% at the end of FY21.

Outlook & valuation

Blue Dart is South Asia's leading express and integrated transportation and distribution company, with a massive infrastructure/network across India, giving it a competitive advantage over existing domestic players and new entrants. The company's strong customer base across various industries such as e-commerce, BFSI, pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, and others, as well as other factors such as GDP growth, Indian government's ambition to reach a USD 5 trillion economy, infrastructure development, and consumption growth, among others, are expected to keep the momentum in volume growth.

Further, it also undertakes price increase by considering inflation, currency dynamics, fuel cost fluctuations, and other regulatory & mandatory costs. In the express cargo industry, technology-led disruptions will continue to test the business models and Blue Dart’s ability to continue to innovate and meet the evolving customer requirements is expected to remain key over the long term.

At the CMP, the stock trades at 29x of FY25E earnings.

Quarterly Financials

Particulars (Rs. in Crores) Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY Q4FY22 QoQ
Revenue from Operations 1293.31 866.22 49.30% 1165.91 10.93%
Freight, Handling and Servicing Cost 720.34 438.16 64.40% 611.89
Employee Cost 215.92 192.95 11.90% 165.48
Other Expenses 89.83 76.03 96.74
Total Expenses 1026.09 707.14 874.11
EBITDA 267.22 159.08 67.98% 291.80 -8.42%
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.66% 18.36% 25.03%
Depreciation and Amortisation Expenses 97.40 99.02 92.52
EBIT 169.82 60.06 182.75% 199.28 -14.78%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.13% 6.93% 17.09%
Finance Cost 17.60 25.03 19.64
Other Income 6.74 6.59 3.61
Profit/(Loss) Before Exceptional Items and Tax 158.96 41.62 183.25
Exceptional Items - - -
Profit Before Tax 158.96 41.62 281.93% 183.25 -13.26%
Tax 40.17 10.35 46.28
Effective Tax Rate (%) 25.27% 24.87% 25.26%
Profit After Tax 118.79 31.27 279.88% 136.97 -13.27%
PAT (%) 9.18% 3.61% 11.75%
Other Comprehensive Income - - 7.08
Total Comprehensive Income 118.79 31.27 144.05
Earnings Per Share (Rs.) 50.06 13.18 279.82% 57.73 -13.29%

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research

Consolidated Financial statements

Profit & Loss statement

Year End March (Rs. in Crores) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Net Sales 3288.13 4410.49 4922.10 5493.06 6168.57
Expenditure
Employee Cost 729.03 765.43 817.07 884.38 962.30
Other Expenses 1872.81 2645.27 3041.86 3394.71 3812.18
EBITDA 686.29 999.79 1063.17 1213.97 1394.10
EBITDA Margin 20.87% 22.67% 21.60% 22.10% 22.60%
Depreciation & Amortization 430.00 395.37 404.58 442.91 479.23
EBIT 256.29 604.42 658.59 771.05 951.88
EBIT Margin % 7.79% 13.70% 13.38% 14.04% 15.43%
Other Income 20.30 30.79 29.53 32.96 37.01
Interest & Finance Charges 110.95 86.97 70.00 60.00 50.00
Profit Before Tax - Before Exceptional 165.64 548.24 618.12 744.01 901.88
Profit Before Tax 139.79 512.29 618.12 744.01 901.88
Tax Expense 37.98 130.08 156.95 188.92 229.00
Effective Tax rate 22.93% 23.73% 25.39% 25.39% 25.39%
Exceptional Items -25.85 -35.95 - - -
Consolidated Net Profit 101.81 382.21 461.17 555.09 672.88
Net Profit Margin after MI 3.10% 8.67% 9.37% 10.11% 10.91%

Balance Sheet

As of March (Rs. in Crores) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Share Capital 23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76
Total Reserves 568.20 848.23 1147.99 1508.80 1946.17
Shareholders' Funds 591.96 871.99 1171.75 1532.56 1969.93
Non Current Liabilities
Long Term Burrowing 245.00 - - - -
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities 731.77 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03
Current Liabilities -
Short Term Borrowings - 200.00 - - -
Trade Payables 509.41 579.87 576.23 599.23 638.99
Other Current Liabilities 781.16 492.91 492.91 492.91 492.91
Total Equity & Liabilities 3611.26 2828.76 2924.88 3308.69 3785.82
Assets -
Net Block 1583.18 1436.87 1400.29 1226.36 1016.12
Current Assets
Currents Investments 150.07 207.39 457.39 757.39 1157.39
Inventories 31.78 34.99 38.35 42.80 47.92
Sundry Debtors 517.92 580.01 580.80 648.18 725.75
Cash and Bank 310.52 184.33 132.00 317.92 522.60
Total Assets 3611.26 2828.76 2924.88 3308.69 3785.82

Cash Flow Statement

Year End March (Rs. in Crores) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Profit After Tax 101.81 382.21 461.17 555.09 672.88
Depreciation 430.00 395.37 404.58 442.91 479.23
Changes in Working Capital 88.62 24.46 -7.80 -48.82 -42.93
Cash From Operating Activities 750.18 859.79 857.95 949.18 1109.17
Purchase of Fixed Assets -160.60 -174.56 -298.87 -268.98 -268.98
Free Cash Flows 589.58 685.23 559.08 680.20 840.19
Others -368.55 181.77 -250.00 -300.00 -400.00
Cash Flow from Investing Activities -528.98 11.31 -548.87 -568.98 -668.98
Increase / (Decrease) in Loan Funds 65.00 -395.00 -200.00 - -
Equity Dividend Paid - -94.91 -161.41 -194.28 -235.51
Cash from Financing Activities -235.20 -772.06 -361.41 -194.28 -235.51
Net Cash Inflow / Outflow -14.00 99.04 -52.33 185.92 204.68
Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents 97.51 83.51 182.55 130.22 316.14
Closing Cash & Cash Equivalent 83.51 182.55 130.22 316.14 520.82

Key Ratios

Year End March 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Basic EPS 42.90 161.08 194.36 233.94 283.58
Cash EPS 224.10 327.71 364.87 420.60 81.61
DPS 15.00 60.00 68.03 81.88 99.25
Book value (Rs/share) 249.44 367.50 493.83 645.89 830.22
ROCE (%) Post Tax 31.83% 66.55% 61.34% 59.46% 54.35%
ROE (%) 18.81% 52.22% 45.13% 41.05% 38.42%
PE 129.93 42.60 42.70 35.48 29.27
P/BV 22.35 18.67 16.81 12.85 10.00
EV/EBITDA 19.47 16.30 18.40 15.34 12.92
Dividend Yield (%) 0.27% 0.87% 0.82% 0.99% 1.20%
P/Sales 4.02 3.69 4.00 3.59 3.19
Net debt/Equity 0.23 0.02 - - -
Net Debt/ EBITDA 0.20 0.02 -0.12 -0.89 -1.21
Sales/Net FA (x) 2.02 2.92 3.47 4.18 5.50